Myles Rennie
 
Please note, this is a screening valuation only. This is not a full fledged valuation of the subject shares and therefore should not be used as the final basis for any investment decision.

Prior to performing a detailed valuation on a business, as illustrated in the many examples below, I perform a ‘screening valuation’ of various businesses in order to determine where I should direct my detailed analysis effort. In order to screen businesses I focus on the following elements or numbers of the considered businesses:
• 10 years of Earnings per Share (EPS) data
• 10 years of deflated EPS data
• 10 years of ROE data
• analyst or consensus forecasted EPS growth rate, if available
• lowest P/E ratio over the last 5 to 10 years
• the average Retention Rate (RR) of the business
• the latest available Book Value per Share (BPS)

Using this set of data for each business considered I calculate a number of ratios and returns for each to help me identify potential value investment candidate businesses. Businesses that pass this initial screen will further be analyzed in detail. From the detailed (individual) analyses investment decisions will be made, i.e. the decision as to where investment capital will be allocated.

In this post I will be comparing 18 different value stocks as of 28 May 2012. The table below shows the final result of the analysis (I have excluded Mondi and Reinet's screens due to incompleteness of my analysis or incompleteness in the data available).
This table shows the result of my screening calculations (not shown in this post) and include 8 overall calculations. Below I have described some of them. They are:
  • Relative to Bond Yield - I calculate the earnings for a share based on the latest earnings per share (EPS) and current share price (i.e. E/P). I then calculate the historical EPS growth rate and, combined with the analyst expected forecasted EPS, estimate the relative EPS for the next 10 years and possible relative share price in 10 years, if I invested R100 in this business today. I then compare this to the return of R100 invested in a 10 year South African government bond 
  • Stability Score - I calculate the stability in growth of both the historical EPS and historical Deflated EPS. The stability of growth of Earnings-, Sales- and Book Value per Share are vitally important for any value investor.
  • Expected EPS Growth - the expected EPS growth is based on the historical growth rate and the analyst estimate. The expected EPS growth is very conservative to ensure that we rather under-promise and over-deliver than the alternative.
  • Expected Return - the compounded annual rate of return is estimated using two different techniques. The first considers the EPS growth over the next 10 years and the second considers the growth in book value over the next 10 years. Both estimate the future share price from these numbers, includes the possible dividends over the next 10 years, and then calculates the expected compound annual return. As can be expected these approaches produce different results, and the final expected return is the average of the two results.
  • Stability Return Score - we now come to the crux of the matter. I take the stability score and multiply it with the expected return. This gives me a stability return score, i.e. the expected return impaired for the stability (or instability) of the earnings history. The stability return score forms the basis of the decision whether to further investigate, i.e. perform a detailed analysis of, the business. 
  • Total Overall Score - I use the stability return score, multiplied by the relative bond score, to calculate the combined effect of the expected return and relative performance to a R100 10 year South African government bond.
The relative ratios and numbers calculated above allow me to screen various possible investments in order to identify the best possible investment candidates. There are a number of other screens not shown here, e.g. price-to-earnings ratio's, price-to-book ratio's, Return on Invested Capital, management screens, competitive advantage screens, etc. 

My recommendations

I hope you have enjoyed this short valuation example. Based on the above I further analysed (in detail) BHP Billiton.  Finally, after the detailed analysis of BHP and other current investment shares, I made my investment recommendations for Richland IH and we will allocate investment capital based on these decisions.

A word of warning to anyone contemplating investing in mining shares/commodities: this is a very specialized field and a tenet of any value investor is to remain within his or her circle of competence. Resources are very attractive to value (i.e. long-term) investors, i.e. the world population is growing and although growth in economies speed up and slow down the demand for commodities will just increase in years to come, who are willing to invest in companies with diversified and extensive resource basis (i.e. ore bodies in the ground), that have good management in place, have good distribution networks in place (especially in emerging and high growth markets), are willing to remain invested for the long-term, and fully understand the risks of holding commodity shares (i.e. if they have to sell during a commodity down cycle they will be punished for the decision - commodity companies are price takers not price makers).

Please feel free to contact me in case you have any additional questions or suggestions regarding this, or any other,  valuation. Always remember to live every day to be a 105%'er ;)

Be Extraordinary!
Myles Rennie

P.S. The above analysis should not be considered investment advice. I will not be held liable for any investment decisions, or investments, made based on my analysis.  
 
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Contrary to popular management belief, there are only a few types of competitive advantage. Examples of sustained competitive advantage are rare to say the least. The simplest form of advantage is created by government when it grants a license to one or more companies to engage in some kind of business with potential entrants deterred by law. Other forms of competitive advantage stem from the basic profit equation: revenue less costs equals profit. This equation highlights two key elements to profits, namely costs and revenue. Some companies have a cost or supply advantage and some a revenue or demand advantage.

   Cost or supply advantages are only sustainable if the company possesses production techniques or products that other companies or new entrants cannot match. These could include patents, or specialized know-how (known as a downward sloping learning curve), or access to cheap resources like labour or capital. Note that technology could create a cost disadvantage, i.e. where a newcomer sets up with the latest technology, and erode any incumbent advantage.

   Customer demand advantages happen when a company has access to customers that a potential entrant or existing competitor cannot match. For the competitive advantage to persist, customers must in some way be captive to these companies, and there is a limited number of ways this can happen. Habit is the most powerful of these. High search costs, i.e. the costs in searching for an alternative supplier, is another advantage and generally apply in local situations with local companies or companies with comprehensive product ranges and great customer satisfaction ratings. The final demand advantage is companies that have products with high switching costs like the case with banks and complex systems, e.g. computer systems. This advantage relies on the time, money and effort required to switch from one supplier to another.

   The final, and generally most durable competitive advantage, is a combination of economies of scale (on the supply side, with high fixed costs relative to variable costs and stable unit variable costs) with some form of demand advantage. In order for economies of scale to constitute an advantage the demand advantage must provide the company with a dominant share of the market. The demand advantage can be small and still matter. Even with only a minor demand advantage, economies of scale will translate a slightly superior market share into lower costs, higher margins, and higher profitability, while attracting a larger share of newcomers into the market. A company with economies of scale, but without a demand advantage, should fiercely protect its markets share. Once its market share starts to erode, the underlying cost advantage shrinks with it. Economies of scale are often linked to companies with a disproportionately large regional market dominance or product-line dominance. When these companies spread across other regions or other products the economies of scale advantages often shrink or disappear eroding its competitive advantage.

   Another marker to look for in identifying companies with a competitive advantage is price increases. Companies with a competitive advantage have the ability to raise prices aggressively and often. Whether a supply, demand, or patent advantage, the strategy is to reinforce the advantage while making full use of pricing opportunities.

   Reproducibility is another factor that differentiates economies of scale as a competitive advantage. This is based on superior production systems, but lasts only as long as the underlying technology does (which is at most a couple of years). The same thing happens with captive customers, they eventually disappear over time. Consumer franchises that are sustainable over decades must have a competitive advantage in recruiting new customers as well as retaining existing ones (i.e. very high demand preferences like Coca-Cola) combined with economics of scale.

   An identifiable and structural durable competitive advantage only exists where a company benefits from barriers to entry that keep out potential competitors or insure that if they choose to enter, they will operate at a competitive disadvantage relative to the company. Successful value investors remain within their circle of competence, where their knowledge of markets, industry, and companies, allows them to identify with certainty competitive advantage. If not these investors are just more punters, taking fliers rather than making investments.


Be extraordinary!
Myles Rennie