The Myles Rennie Investment Strategy Page
My own investment strategy is an outflow from the Buffett and Graham strategies, but adjusted for the South African market. My MBA thesis, and my current PhD research, is aimed at understanding and adjusting traditional value investing strategies to the South African market, i.e. contemporising value investing for emerging markets.
All value investment strategies focus firstly (i.e. stage one) on the quality of a firms evaluated and secondly (i.e. stage two) on the investment opportunity of a share at a given time. However, value investors don't have well defined, long-term, business oriented risk models. Therefore, stage one of all value investment strategies only have qualitative risk models. I have developed a new quantitative risk model for value investors, used during stage one of evaluating a share. Furthermore, from this new risk model flows a new method of intrinsic valuation I call the Expected Value Theory of Valuation. Using the new valuation method, I developed a new method for portfolio management I call the Expected Value Theory of Portfolio Management. My MBA and PhD theses are a full treatment of these topics and their application.
All value investment strategies focus firstly (i.e. stage one) on the quality of a firms evaluated and secondly (i.e. stage two) on the investment opportunity of a share at a given time. However, value investors don't have well defined, long-term, business oriented risk models. Therefore, stage one of all value investment strategies only have qualitative risk models. I have developed a new quantitative risk model for value investors, used during stage one of evaluating a share. Furthermore, from this new risk model flows a new method of intrinsic valuation I call the Expected Value Theory of Valuation. Using the new valuation method, I developed a new method for portfolio management I call the Expected Value Theory of Portfolio Management. My MBA and PhD theses are a full treatment of these topics and their application.
10 Share Model Portfolio
Myles Rennie's Own Analysis on 28 June 2013
Ticker | Company | Interest | Own Score | Price | Exp Avg Ret | Mark Cap | P/E | Mean P/E | Yield % | EPS %CAGR |
ABL | African Bank Inv Ltd | 0/3 | 60.47% | 1,632.00 | 27.99% | 13,124,139,264 | 5.48 | 12.82 | 18.25% | 12.79% |
CPI | Capitec Bank Hldgs Ltd | 0/3 | 55.81% | 19,300.00 | 24.82% | 22,087,306,000 | 12.71 | 14.57 | 7.87% | 42.73% |
BVT | Bidvest Ltd | 0/3 | 0.00% | 24,495.00 | 9.38% | 76,412,642,400 | 16.81 | 14.93 | 5.95% | 8.39% |
IVT | Invicta Holdings Ltd | 0/3 | 0.00% | 9,880.00 | 9.05% | 7,125,752,400 | 11.16 | 9.12 | 8.96% | 18.79% |
PNC | Pinnacle Tech Hldgs Ltd | 0/3 | 0.00% | 2,390.00 | 8.90% | 4,062,424,584 | 12.54 | 7.15 | 7.97% | 25.76% |
DGC | Digicore Holdings Limite | 0/3 | 0.00% | 192.00 | 8.87% | 475,524,480 | 26.67 | 11.47 | 3.75% | -33.44% |
ISA | ISA Holdings Limited | 1/3 | 0.00% | 63.00 | 8.46% | 115,668,000 | 12.12 | 8.52 | 8.25% | 8.78% |
SOL | Sasol Limited | 1/3 | 0.00% | 43,154.00 | 8.38% | 278,256,992,000 | 10.09 | 10.50 | 9.92% | 2.65% |
NCS | Nictus Ltd | 0/3 | 0.00% | 110.00 | 8.14% | 58,787,300 | -4.80 | 7.70 | -20.85% | -30.49% |
VOD | Vodacom Group Ltd | 1/3 | 0.00% | 10,502.00 | 7.88% | 154,694,460,000 | 12.04 | 13.50 | 8.31% | 17.91% |
Note that I analyse the JSE daily producing my Myles Rennie score for each share listed on the JSE. If there is a particular share you are interested in don't hesitate to contact me and request the information.
Detailed Model Portfolio Analysis
No companies screen above 80% (Own Score) for my strategy at this time.
This section typically shows the top company from the list above, if the score is above 80%, in more detail at the specified date of analysis.
This section typically shows the top company from the list above, if the score is above 80%, in more detail at the specified date of analysis.
Previous Model Portfolios
Notice that like above, no shares screen into my strategy, i.e. has a score of more higher than 80%. This is a strong indication that the market is trading at a premium (i.e. expensive) at the moment.
10 Share Model Portfolio at 30 May 2013
Myles Rennie's Own Analysis on 30 May 2013
Ticker | Company | Interest | Own Score | Price | Exp Avg Ret | Mark Cap | P/E | Mean P/E | Yield % | EPS %CAGR |
CPI | Capitec Bank Hldgs Ltd | 0/3 | 67.44% | 18,690.00 | 25.64% | 21,389,209,800 | 12.30 | 14.59 | 8.13% | 42.73% |
ABL | African Bank Inv Ltd | 0/3 | 60.47% | 1,608.00 | 28.44% | 12,931,137,216 | 5.40 | 12.85 | 18.52% | 12.79% |
PNC | Pinnacle Tech Hldgs Ltd | 1/3 | 0.00% | 2,270.00 | 9.93% | 3,858,453,475 | 11.91 | 7.12 | 8.40% | 25.76% |
NCS | Nictus Ltd | 0/3 | 0.00% | 110.00 | 8.16% | 58,787,300 | -19.82 | 7.71 | -5.05% | -30.49% |
IVT | Invicta Holdings Ltd | 0/3 | 0.00% | 10,355.00 | 8.02% | 7,468,336,650 | 13.88 | 9.11 | 7.20% | 18.79% |
APN | Aspen Pharmacare Hldgs L | 0/3 | 0.00% | 21,493.00 | 7.69% | 97,618,196,980 | 30.51 | 18.23 | 3.28% | 30.26% |
SOL | Sasol Limited | 0/3 | 0.00% | 44,700.00 | 7.62% | 288,225,600,000 | 10.45 | 10.50 | 9.57% | 2.65% |
TFG | The Foschini Group Limit | 0/3 | 0.00% | 11,100.00 | 7.49% | 22,910,400,000 | 12.93 | 11.88 | 7.74% | 9.00% |
ITE | Italtile Ltd | 0/3 | 0.00% | 600.00 | 7.19% | 5,514,251,478 | 13.67 | 11.86 | 7.32% | 4.49% |
AME | African Media Ent Ltd | 0/3 | 0.00% | 6,310.00 | 7.06% | 515,590,100 | 14.91 | 8.54 | 6.71% | 0.00% |
10 Share Model Portfolio at 30 April 2013
Myles Rennie's Own Analysis on 30 April 2013
Ticker | Company | Interest | Own Score | Price | Exp Avg Ret | Mark Cap | P/E | Mean P/E | Yield % | EPS %CAGR |
CPI | Capitec Bank Hldgs Ltd | 0/3 | 55.81% | 21,851.00 | 21.77% | 25,006,721,420 | 14.39 | 14.59 | 6.95% | 42.73% |
APN | Aspen Pharmacare Hldgs L | 0/3 | 0.00% | 19,490.00 | 9.82% | 88,520,851,400 | 27.67 | 18.23 | 3.61% | 30.26% |
WHL | Woolworths Holdings Ltd | 0/3 | 0.00% | 6,994.00 | 0.95% | 52,154,258,000 | 23.64 | 14.17 | 4.23% | 23.50% |
IVT | Invicta Holdings Ltd | 0/3 | 0.00% | 9,800.00 | 9.22% | 7,068,054,000 | 13.14 | 9.11 | 7.61% | 18.79% |
DAW | Distr and Warehousing | 0/3 | 0.00% | 795.00 | 9.16% | 1,909,931,850 | 14.20 | 11.39 | 7.04% | -28.96% |
AGL | Anglo American plc | 0/3 | 0.00% | 21,775.00 | 8.95% | 273,058,500,000 | 27.92 | 13.29 | 3.58% | -29.32% |
DGC | Digicore Holdings Limite | 0/3 | 0.00% | 195.00 | 8.44% | 482,954,550 | 27.08 | 11.40 | 3.69% | -33.44% |
VOD | Vodacom Group Ltd | 0/3 | 0.00% | 10,521.00 | 7.87% | 154,974,330,000 | 13.46 | 13.52 | 7.43% | 17.91% |
ARH | ARB Holdings Limited | 0/3 | 0.00% | 456.00 | 7.87% | 1,071,600,000 | 12.33 | 9.27 | 8.11% | -7.63% |
DTC | Datatec Ltd | 0/3 | 0.00% | 5,050.00 | 7.61% | 9,494,000,000 | 14.44 | 17.94 | 6.92% | -0.71% |
10 Share Model Portfolio at 29 March 2013
Myles Rennie's Own Analysis on 29 March 2013
Ticker | Company | Interest | Own Score | Price | Exp Avg Ret | Mark Cap | P/E | Mean P/E | Yield % | EPS %CAGR |
CPI | Capitec Bank Hldgs Ltd | 0/3 | 55.81% | 21,418.00 | 22.26% | 24,511,187,560 | 14.10 | 14.59 | 7.09% | 42.73% |
SOL | Sasol Limited | 1/3 | 0.00% | 40,734.00 | 9.64% | 262,652,832,000 | 9.52 | 10.50 | 10.50% | 2.65% |
BVT | Bidvest Ltd | 0/3 | 0.00% | 24,236.00 | 9.60% | 75,604,686,720 | 16.63 | 14.93 | 6.01% | 8.39% |
CFR | Compagnie Fin Richemont | 0/3 | 0.00% | 7,248.00 | 0.96% | 40,603,296,000 | 19.82 | 17.79 | 5.05% | 0.28% |
ISA | ISA Holdings Limited | 1/3 | 0.00% | 60.00 | 9.48% | 110,160,000 | 8.96 | 8.49 | 11.17% | 8.78% |
AFR | Afgri Limited | 0/3 | 0.00% | 535.00 | 9.29% | 2,008,925,000 | 10.49 | 8.15 | 9.53% | -6.39% |
MST | Mustek Ltd | 0/3 | 0.00% | 614.00 | 9.20% | 666,000,673 | 7.02 | 9.48 | 14.25% | -0.81% |
BCX | Business Connexion Grp L | 0/3 | 0.00% | 581.00 | 8.56% | 2,352,887,320 | 14.90 | 15.04 | 6.71% | -3.57% |
IVT | Invicta Holdings Ltd | 0/3 | 0.00% | 10,200.00 | 8.35% | 7,356,546,000 | 13.67 | 9.11 | 7.31% | 18.79% |
ITE | Italtile Ltd | 0/3 | 0.00% | 578.00 | 8.00% | 5,312,062,257 | 13.17 | 11.86 | 7.60% | 4.49% |